What if the Spanish Armada had won?

[shaxper]

The battle was closer than some may think.  Some historians even claimed that it was simply the strength and direction of the winds that weakened the Armada.  What would have become of England if Spain had won?  How would its culture and art have been affected?  Would England have ever formed a sense of nationality and become a world power?

[Optimus_Prime]

quite simply, America as we know of it would have never existed. the britsh land forces at home were hardly equiped to fight a force that had been fighting in wartorn flanders for years, and the british, being mainly volunteers and conscripts, could hardly stand up. anglican england would end. a new catholic monarchy would take control. and spain would be dominate. at least, for a while.

[shaxper]

Excellent points.  I think there's little doubt the New World would have become an odd mixture of French and Spanish.  

I wonder how Spain would have occupied england though, and what it would have done to English Culture.  Certainly, the patriotic History Plays never would have been written.  More importantly, Elizabeth would be dead, or at least degraded.  She either wouldn't have been around to pass the crown to the Stewarts, or the Stewarts wouldn't have looked as terrible in comparison to her.  The Protestant Revolt probably never would have happened (plus the Spanish probably would have exiled or killed all the Protestants when they came).  

Perhaps, in the absence of a successor to Elizabeth, England would have become a Spanish possession, though they would have had a hard time holding it.  With both the New World and England sitting wide open before both Spain and France (as well as a few others, but not as easily) there would have been a major French/Spanish War that might have resulted in one's near total annihilation, and the establishment of a world power, as a result, that controlled most or all of the Americas, England, and their own nation, as well.

Just one possibility.  Then again, things are never that simple, are they?

[Optimus_Prime]

indeed. offcourse, if spain had won, the world would have dropped in chaos, since in a few years the bloodline of intermarrage would have disintigated.

[shaxper]

Well, bloodlines have never been Europe's strong suit.  When too much intermarriage resulted in sickly children like Edward IV, England was always good at  throwing the crown to whoever else was around (i.e. Mary, Elizabeth, and then the Stewarts), or a coupe would form and someone with almost no relation to the ruling family whatsover would enter (Henry VII).   The current ruling family in England has almost no relationship to William I whatsoever, and even he only had three direct decendants (none of which included or decended from the line of his first born son).  I'm not sure what Spain's situation was, but I can't imagine bloodline would have been too much of a problem for them.  There was always someone itching to rule when the good blood ran out.

[Ganymede]

Are we talking the battle or the war?  

If the Spanish Armada had won the battle of the Spanish Armada, I don't think that necessarily means that they would have won the war.  Yes, England's troops seem woefully inadequate to defend against Spanish invasion, but Elizabeth was a savvy ruler.  If the situation had become dire, other troops may have been rounded up.  Also, the British army would have home court advantage, knowing the British countryside much better than the Spainiards.  Finally, war can go either ways depending on other factors that could not have been foreseen.  Just because the British army looked weak doesn't mean it couldn't pull out a victory.  

[shaxper]

A good point.  However, during the time of the Spanish Armada, there was very little undeveloped land in England.  There wasn't much of a countryside to speak of.  The forests Shakespeare writes about were actually very small undeveloped pieces of land that rarely had much greenery in them, thus the fantastic nature of his escapist comedies, and the allure for the pastoral in literature and drama, in general.

Not to say this means England would not have been able to defend itself.  Just that wherever the Spanish stepped foot, there would inevitably be human and monetary loss and devastation.  It may have been contained quickly, but England could not walk away from it feeling particularly victorious and invulnerable; and I don't think they would have been elevated to the rank of a world power.  Your point is correct.  The battle was not the war, and landing on British soil would not have guarenteed victory, but it would have guarenteed destruction.

[Abhorson]

Spain sent several armadas against England, and yet the myths and legends only ever grew up around the great Armada of 1588, and that the Armada ever truly posed a mortal threat to England I cannot help but feel to be one of those myths.

Certainly the weather could determine the fate of a battle in the age of sail, but it is interesting to note that the Spainish fleet only mounted 21 heavy cannon, as opposed to the 153 aboard the English ships. Whilst all the ships involved did mount many smaller weapons none were capable of penetrating the hull a vessel, and so could be discounted.

Also the Armada was very much an army upon the sea, in that its tactics were strictly based upon closing enemy vessels, and boarding them with soldiers. The English, with all their heavy cannon certainly declined the Spainish the oppurtunity of ever getting close enough to make any such attempt, which giving the difficulty of hitting a vessel at range at sea answers why their were so few casualties due to enemy action. Had there actually been a general battle though it is almost certain that the English ships would have overwhelmed their Spainish counterparts, as they possessed superior speed and firepower, which is everything in a naval engagement.

Some historians have suggested that the enterprise of England, was little more than a diversion, with the true target being to land the army in the Netherlands and combine with the forces Duke of Parma and force a resolution there. The Armada itself being a protective force against the English and the Sea Beggars. I think they are at least right in that Phillip desired the reoccupation of the Netherlands far more than the occupation of England.

Reoccupation would certainly have allowed the invasion of England in the future with far greater ease, given the ports that would be availible and far nearer to England, and also as long as long as England remained Protestant Phillip could screw much needed money from the Pope for other adventures.

England experienced a golden age of culture and art following attempted invasion, much as Greece experienced after the Persian invasion, and like Greece it was contingent upon having maintained the national identity and freedom. I definitely think that England would never have become a world power, as that power was based on a maritime supremacy that grew out of the defeat of the Armada.

[shaxper]

Fascinating, Abhorson!

So then who would have started the myth about the strength of the Armada?  Elizabeth was the master of "myth-making", and I could see her exagerating the circumstances so as to bring the nation together and make it patriotic (for once) after their victory, but then wouldn't that also be an admission that the English fleet "got lucky?".  I know that the Tudor hold on England was tenuous up until this point.  Henry VIII had been a wishy-washy tyrant, Edward was nothing, Mary was another tyrant, and Elizabeth was a woman (and thus either weak and indecisive, or closely associated with Mary).  the defeat of the armada seemed to be what secured her hold on the nation.  Could this have happened if the nation knew how easily the Armada was defeated (as you say)?

Man, history is never as clean cut as we'd like it to be    

[Abhorson]

I totally agree with your analysis of Elizibeth, she was a consumate politician and knew how to exact the full value from the invasion of the Armada.

I see the situation being somewhat similar to the expected German invasion of England in WW2, which was even more of an unlikely proposition than England being occupied by Spain, but nonetheless preparations were made to prevent it, and the public expected the hitherto invincible Germans to be across the channel in no time.

Likewise the Spainish were in a position of maritime and military supremacy before the Armada sailed. To the public, who generally only new what they were told then as much as in 1940 it is probable that they had little access to information beyond the propaganda and stories spread by the authorities.

[Bardolph]

Abhorson is absolutely right about the issue of naval engagement.  The Armada was an army at sea.  In the event that the weather did not expose the Armada to destruction by the fire ships, the Armada might still have lost the naval engagement solely based on their inability to tack in all winds.  The Armada also failed because of a poor planning.  It was most often the case that European monarchs would risk great forces in order to stimulate the opponent to sue for peace.  This thinking lasted well into WWII where Hitler's blitzkrieg driven mad dashes were designed to make extraordinary land grabs.  He took far more risks than is generally supposed, moving divisions rapidly from east to west and risking exposure on the one side to grab a tactical advantage on the other.  

Without naval superiority, the Spanish could not have resupplied their expedition against the Brits.  The presence of infantry on English soil might just as well have unified Welsh, Irish and Scot nobleman whose lands and titles relied upon English politics.  The Spanish lacked diplomatic engagement with these divergent peoples.  If they understood the Island politics, these people could have been expoited for use against the English throne.  

But the larger question about a victory for the Spanish Armada is that of religious theme.  The very reason that H5 and it's predecessor, Famous Victories, were written was to reflect the apparent endorsement of the English monarchy by God.  Just as H5 endures his "agony in the garden" on the night before Agincourt, Elizabeth endures her own trial.  The fact that the victory was delivered by wind and weather was taken as testament to the validity of both Queen and the Anglican Church.  She is The Mortal Moon who hath endured her eclipse.  
The defeat of the Armada was blown out of context.  This was purposefully done by English court propaganda.  And WS seems to have seen the light of acting as one of these propagandists from time to time.  There were none so safe as those who clung to the skirt of Elizabeth.  

[Desdemona]

I know it doesn't have much to do with this discussion, but while studying for my British history class the other day, I read something that I hadn't heard of before: the Spanish actually fought the English in 1588 to support catholic Ireland. Since Spain was such a hypercatholic country, they felt they had to help the catholics in Ireland to at least get the same civil rights and stuff as the anglicans. And what the Spanish really wanted to do of course, was overthrow Elizabeth and make the British Isles entirely catholic.
Has anyone heard or read this before? Could you tell me more about it?